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Robert Hamilton for Statecraft and Strategy: "Russia Eyes Europe’s 'Unquiet Frontier'".
Since the end of the Second World War, Eurasia has been a central focus of U.S. national security thinking and policy. For some eight decades, there was a consensus within the U.S. policy community that, given Eurasia’s geographic size, population, and concentration of resources, its domination by a hegemonic power would represent a grave threat to American interests. U.S. policymakers also generally agreed that “Eurasia is not dependably self-regulating in terms of preventing the emergence of regional hegemons.”[3] What this meant was that Washington needed to remain engaged in Europe to prevent the emergence of a state with such absolutist aspirations. ...
"Mali Plays Russian Roulette" - Christopher Faulkner and Raphael Parens for Foreign Policy
Recent violence exposes the flaws in the Kremlin’s mercenary security model.
On April 25, a series of coordinated attacks shook military sites and cities across Mali, claiming the life of Defense Minister Sadio Camara, who had been considered a central player in the country’s security relationship with Russian forces. Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an al Qaeda affiliate that has metastasized across the Sahel for years, and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), the Tuareg-led separatist movement operating primarily in Mali’s north, claimed responsibility for the attacks.
Batu Kutelia in Science Politics: "Small Reactors, Big Stakes"
Russia’s war against Ukraine illustrates how energy can be weaponized against a single nation — and, by extension, an entire region. Are small, modular reactors the answer? Global affairs are rapidly changing. Over the past two decades we have observed a battle between democracy and authoritarianism, marked by aggressive revisionism and the erosion of the rules-based international order by authoritarian regimes. We have also observed a rapid technological transformation driven by artificial intelligence. These changes amplify the need to access reliable, stable, and resilient energy sources.
Delphi Global Research Center Announces Fellowship Program for Emerging Ukrainian Leaders
Delphi Global Research Center is proud to announce a call for nominations to its inaugural Fellowship Program for Emerging Ukrainian Leaders. In an era of unprecedented global volatility, the need for clear-eyed, realistic, and rigorous geopolitical vision has never been more vital. This six-month fellowship program is designed to move beyond the "waves of despair and hope" that often characterize wartime discourse and instead ground the emerging Ukrainian leaders in the Western tradition of analytical and imaginative rigor. The fellowship program ultimately aims to help Ukraine build a “deep bench” of professionals capable of navigating complex geopolitical dynamics. By exposing Fellows to Western modes of argumentation and critical thinking, and by familiarizing them with Western audience expectations, the program seeks to lay a foundation of rigorous analytic techniques and best practices. Further, the program’s unique focus on the role of imagination in statecraft and strategic analysis will expose Fellows to novel modes of engaging the world’s most intractable geopolitical problems. For additional information, visit the program page on our website: https://www.delphigrc.org/imagination-in-statecraft
Now Available in German: "The China-Russia Relationship: The Dance of the Dragon and the Bear"
This book takes a new approach to examining the relationship between China and Russia, departing from the standard debate over whether the relationship is a true strategic partnership or merely an axis of convenience. Instead, the book argues that the best way to gain an understanding of ties between Beijing and Moscow is to watch how they interact “on the ground” in regions of the world where they both have important interests at stake. It provides an in-depth analysis of Chinese-Russian interaction in Africa, Central Asia, and East Asia, as well as an analysis of China’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The picture of the relationship that emerges portrays its dynamic, complex, and contingent nature, and reveals areas of convergence and divergence between these two powers. In doing so, it provides a new perspective useful to both scholars and policymakers.
Robert Hamilton and Dan Perry for The Hill: "This year’s Munich conference is about Europe striking back."
The Munich Security Conference has always been the West’s annual audit of threats. But this year, the most consequential conversations will not be about Russia or China but about the U.S. The premise that American leadership is legitimate, predictable, and mostly benevolent, which held for 80 years, has been shattered by President Trump. After a year of politely “handling” American disdain, culminating in last month’s implied threats to attack NATO ally Denmark over Greenland, look for Europe to start making itself heard.
Raphael Parens and Steven Radil for Foreign Policy: "Welcome to the ‘Mad Max’ World Order: How a runaway uranium convoy encapsulates the collapse of global rules"
Niger’s junta is shipping uranium confiscated from a French mine in a massive armed convoy across the Sahel, and appears set to attempt to sell it abroad or send it to Russia. This “Mad Max” convoy, as it’s being called in French media, is a glaring example of an international system that is being rapidly rewired. A United States-led international order that prioritized rules and rule following is coming apart in real time. Scrambles to claim control over energy, minerals, shipping routes, and a willingness to ignore the prohibitions of the old order is the new norm. Routine instruments of statecraft for treaty violations, like sanctions, still exist but their enforcement is uneven. As great power alliances have become unpredictable, middle powers and even small states have become more willing to gamble on rule breaking, because penalties feel avoidable.
Christopher Faulkner and Raphael Parens for The Modern War Institute: "Mercenarism Reborn: Drone Operators, Coders, and the Post-Ukraine Market for Force"
Ukraine has emerged as the world’s most intense proving ground for modern warfare. Yet, these lethal advances in technology and tactics will not remain confined to Ukrainian battlefields. While wars typically end with questions about security guarantees and postwar reconstruction, the end of the war in Ukraine will force an additional question: What happens to the people who acquired the technical know-how to fight the next war? The conflict has already reshaped debates about the future of armed conflict. Many analysts argue that the war marks the maturation of technological trends that now define contemporary warfare, pointing to the diffusion of new technologies that now underpin military operations on both sides. Aerial and maritime drones, AI-enabled targeting systems, and algorithmic tools for logistics and battlefield management are no longer theoretical; they are central tools to how war is fought. Networked drones, commercial sensors, and data-driven targeting have closed the distance from target identification to destruction. In short, kill chains that once took days to unfold now close in hours, even minutes. Equally important, operators have adapted and integrated these technologies in real time. Improvisation and experimentation have become essential for competition and survival on the modern battlefield.
Coming Soon: "Moscow's Mercenaries: The Rise and Fall of the Wagner Group"
The Wagner Group emerged from Russia’s shadowy criminal underworld in 2014 and soon became one of the world’s most infamous private military companies. Led by the provocative oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, Wagner developed into a key instrument of Russian power projection, with deep and direct ties to the Kremlin. Its mercenaries fought on the front lines in Ukraine, propped up regimes in the Middle East and Africa, and exploited chaos to secure lucrative resource contracts before Prigozhin’s mutiny against Moscow in 2023 brought him down.
Delphi's Robert Hamilton on PBS News
Russia fired a large-scale barrage of drones and missiles at Ukraine early Friday, damaging apartment buildings in Kyiv, Odesa and Kharkiv. It comes as Russia has been making incremental gains on the ground in recent weeks, and the diplomatic path for ending the war is nowhere in sight. Amna Nawaz discussed more with retired Col. Robert Hamilton of the Delphi Global Research Center.