Swaggering Toward Sicily: American Hubris Under Trump Invites Catastrophe

Since returning to the White House last January as the “President of Peace”, and openly petitioning to be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Trump has ordered US military attacks in at least seven countries. Trump’s attacks on Iran and Venezuela are well-known, but he has also ordered US strikes in Nigeria, Somalia, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Emboldened by the capabilities the US military showed in Iran and Venezuela - capabilities unmatched by any other military on the planet - the Trump White House has also threatened military action against Colombia, Panama, Mexico, Cuba, Iran (again), and even Greenland, an autonomous territory of NATO ally Denmark.

Using words more suited to a mob boss than a US President, Trump recently said, “We are going to do something in Greenland, whether they like it or not”, before concluding that if he is unable to do it “the easy way” he would “do it the hard way.” Stephen Miller, Trump’s Deputy Chief of Staff, provided a glimpse into the broader world view of this White House, a world view comfortable with the idea of an unprovoked attack on a treaty ally. Speaking to CNN, Miller said, “We live in a world in which you can talk all you want about international niceties and everything else… But we live in a world, in the real world … that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world.” Miller then concluded, “We’re a superpower. And under President Trump, we are going to conduct ourselves as a superpower.”

Although Miller and Trump might not be thinking historically, their words - and the actions they portend - have deep roots in military history. In one of the first systemic wars - that between Athens, Sparta and the coalitions they led - an Athenian delegation landed on the island of Melos, a small city-state that had tried to maintain its neutrality in the war. The two sides set about negotiating Melos’ status, with the Athenians demanding the island submit to Athenian rule and the Melians arguing that Athens should “consent to our being neutral, friends instead of enemies, but allies of neither side.” To which the Athenians responded, “No; for your hostility cannot so much hurt us as your friendship will be an argument to our subjects of our weakness, and your enmity of our power.” In other words, for an empire like Athens, the very existence of a weaker state in its region that refused to submit to its authority was a danger to the survival of the Athenian empire.

In the end Melos refused to submit to Athens. The Athenians then attacked the island, defeated its army, “put to death all the grown men whom they took, and sold the women and children for slaves, and subsequently sent out five hundred colonists and inhabited the place themselves.” From this episode comes perhaps the most memorable line in Thucydides’ famous account of the war. Explaining to the Melians that their appeals to justice and fairness were out of touch with the way the world actually works, the Athenian delegates said, “right, as the world goes, is only in question between equals in power, while the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must.” 

The parallels between the words of the Athenians and those of Trump and his acolytes are stunning. The similarities between Miller’s understanding of international politics and that of the Athenian delegates to Melos are obvious. But the swaggering tone extends beyond the White House; after the US intervention in Venezuela, the State Department posted to social media, “This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened.” Those celebrating America’s newfound claim to unlimited rights in “its” hemisphere are fond of referring to the Melian Dialogue as a way of explaining that international politics has always been thus, and the US is simply doing what great powers have always done. Many of them also claim the US is simply acting in accordance with the tenets of realist international relations theory.

These arguments misunderstand both Thucydides and realism as a theory of international relations. While realism notes that the condition of anarchy at the level of the international system (i.e. - there exists no power that can effectively police the behavior of states) compels each state to look first and foremost after its own security, the theory does not prescribe the types of actions the US is taking under Trump. In fact, realism often counsels restraint and advises that power should only be expended in the pursuit of core national security goals. Few of the military operations Trump has ordered - and certainly none of them he is now threatening - meet that standard. Instead of realism, the doctrine that best describes Trump’s approach to the world is neo-imperialism.

This brings us back to Thucydides. Those cheering the naked assertion of American power would do well to read the rest of his book, or at a minimum the part that comes directly after the Melian Dialogue. Because Thucydides is not celebrating Athens’ conduct as much as he is writing a cautionary tale. In Thucydides’ account, high on their success at subduing Melos, the Athenians began to debate a more ambitious military expedition. The primary proponent of the next military adventure was an Athenian nobleman named Alcibiades, and the target was Sicily, a large island home to city-states allied with both Athens and Sparta, and others that were independent. Alcibiades assured members of the Athenian assembly that the conquest of Sicily would be a simple matter that would bring even more power and glory to Athens. In Thucydides' account, Alcibiades argued “that we shall augment our power at home by this adventure abroad.” His rationale for attacking Sicily was imperial: “we cannot fix the exact point at which our empire shall stop; we have reached a position in which we must not be content with retaining but must scheme to extend it, for, if we cease to rule others, we are in danger of being ruled ourselves.” In another parallel with some officials in the current US government, Thucydides also notes that Alcibiades had personal reasons to favor attacking Sicily, in that he hoped to “personally to gain in wealth and reputation by means of his successes.”

The Athenian assembly approved the Sicilian Expedition, which proved the biggest strategic disaster of the war for Athens. Unsurprisingly, the island was harder to subdue than Alcibiades promised, Sparta came to the aid of its allies there, and Athens found itself drawn into a bloody war it could not win for an island it did not need. Athens eventually lost two entire expeditionary forces on Sicily, with the survivors of the second mostly worked to death in the island's mines by their captors. Although Athens fought for some nine years after its defeat in Sicily, the expedition caused such financial and military damage to Athens that its overall defeat was assured. In another cautionary tale for Trump’s America, Sparta won the war in part by undermining Athens’ alliance system, which was ripe for the undermining because Athens had taken to abusing its allies during the war.

Athens’ military defeat was a result of strategic blindness borne of hubris, coupled with a collapsing alliance system that left it to face its enemies alone. Unless Trump’s America changes course fast, a similar fate could await it. Trump’s imperial ambition and his abuse of America's allies, including threatening to attack several of them, threatens to leave the US alone in the face of actual threats - not just threats concocted in the heads of Trump and those around him.

Featured Image: PELOPONNESIAN WARS. Destruction of the Athenian Army in Sicily during the Peleponnesian War, 413 B.C.: wood engraving, 19th century. Image Credit: J.G.Vogt, Illustrierte Weltgeschichte, vol. 1, Leipzig (E.Wiest) 1893., Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

In-text image: US Department of State Post on Social Media, "This is OUR Hemisphere, and President Trump will not allow our security to be threatened." Image Credit: US Department of State X page, https://x.com/StateDept/status/2008221563888292207/photo/1